How big is the Indian wine market, really?

And why now is the moment South African producers should pay attention

To understand the opportunity in India, we have to start with context — starting with a simple comparison: India vs South Africa.

India is the most populous country in the world, with about 1.4 billion people. That’s more than 20× the population of South Africa, which is around 60 million. Yet, despite this enormous scale, wine in India is still emerging, making it a market in motion rather than one that has already matured. Wikipedia

This makes right now a uniquely compelling time to pay attention.

India’s wine consumption today: small, but growing

In India, wine remains a niche product — but one with serious growth signals.Per capita wine consumption in India is tiny — about 9 millilitres per person per year — roughly 1/8000th of a traditional wine market like France. Wikipedia

Contrast that with South Africa, where wine is:

• widely produced locally,

• part of restaurant culture,

• common in celebrations and casual social life.

This difference highlights that wine in India isn’t cultural tradition yet — it’s aspiration in progress.

At the same time, several industry forecasts suggest that the Indian wine market is expected to grow rapidly through this decade. For example:

• One market analysis projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 10–16% through the end of the 2020s, driven by rising incomes, urbanisation and evolving consumer preferences. TechSci Research+1

• Another forecast sees the total market value growing from around USD 226–270 million in 2024 to well over USD 900 million by the early 2030s. Markets and Data

These growth projections are strong — especially for a category that is still establishing baseline consumption.

Why “small” isn’t a weakness — especially now

Wine tails behind beer and spirits in India — but it’s trending upward, not flatlining. Even in a global context where wine consumption has declined in many mature markets, India’s market is a place where growth is occurring, not retreating. According to global wine sector data, world wine consumption hit its lowest level in decades, yet India’s emerging patterns stand out as a rare growth signal. OIV+1

Here’s why “small but growing” matters:

1. Low penetration today = high upside tomorrow When per capita consumption is only a few millilitres yearly, any uplift from awareness, travel experiences, hospitality exposure, or premiumisation can create disproportionately large percentage growth.

2. Urban, aspirational drinkers are forming fast The vast majority of Indian wine consumption is concentrated in major urban centres — Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Goa and other metropolises — where disposable incomes and exposure to global culture are higher.

3. Young drinkers are curious A growing middle class with international travel experience and access to wine education is beginning to change consumption patterns.

4. Import demand is increasing While domestic wine production exists and contributes to local awareness, imported wine is becoming a more visible part of the premium hospitality landscape. Data shows that India imports wine from a wide range of countries, with South Africa listed among the exporters. Volza

These factors mean the stage is set for a broader shift in how India drinks wine — and a shift of this nature rarely happens overnight, but when it does, the early and informed participants benefit most.

South African wine: a natural fit for India’s evolving palate

South African wine is already a global export success story.

In 2024, South Africa shipped over 300 million litres of wine internationally, generating roughly US$562 million in export value, even as global wine volumes softened. Wosa+1

That scale and experience matter because:

• South African producers are accustomed to export dynamics in competitive markets.

• They understand brand building, quality assurance, and global distribution.

• South African wines offer diverse styles at attractive quality-to-price ratios — an attractive combination for an emerging market like India.

Plus, South African wine producers are now seeking new horizons as some traditional markets become more challenging due to tariffs and shifting consumption trends. This makes a market like India not just interesting, but strategically timely.

Why NOW — and not later

Here’s the core of the argument:

India’s wine market is not yet saturated, not yet fixed in consumer habits, and not yet dominated by entrenched players. That’s rare in the world of wine.

Many established wine markets look like zero-sum games today — their total consumption is flat or declining. But India’s wine segment is growing from the ground up, creating dynamic space for new stories, new producers, and new connections.

A few more context points reinforce this timing:

• Growth forecasts suggest a strong expansion through the late 2020s and into the next decade. Technavio

• Imported wines are gaining more visibility in hotel and restaurant lists. ProWine Mumbai

• Young, urban consumers are forming new taste habits and seeking experiences that include premium beverages like wine.

Comparing this to South Africa, where wine culture is established and highly competitive, India offers a greenfield chance to shape impressions early — not chase entrenched distributor mind-share or legacy brand expectations.

In summary: why this matters

India may not be (yet) a giant wine market by traditional global metrics, but it is one of the few places in the world where wine is still actively being discovered.

For South African producers, this represents:

• potential for premium visibility in high-growth segments

• access to new, globally curious consumers

• an opening to shape perceptions of South African wine early

• and the opportunity to enter a market before routinised habits harden

That combination — large population + low current consumption + rapid modernisation + premium orientation — is exactly the kind of foundational growth that precedes lasting category change.

Want to be part of this story?

If you are a South African winemaker, producer, brand owner, wine professional or industry stakeholder curious about India’s wine evolution — or if you have connections to hospitality, trade, education or import networks — I’d love to continue the conversation. Email me: erica@uncorkified.com